There has been extensive discussion surrounding the third overall pick and what the Patriots should or could do with it. While we cannot control their decision, I can make a compelling argument that they should draft a quarterback - regardless of how poor their roster is.
Featured images courtesy of players' Instagram: left to right: .J McCarthy, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels
In 2018, the Buffalo Bills selected Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen with the seventh overall pick. Serious concerns existed surrounding his rawness and he was labeled by many as a major project. However, one undeniable truth was his exceptional tools and upside - his intangibles were off the charts. When the Bills took that gamble, they were banking on Allen's upside. While his ceiling was high, his floor was virtually non-existent.
Some people believe that if the Patriots select a quarterback at the top of the draft it would lead to that guy being "ruined" or following the same path as Mac Jones because the team's offensive line is questionable and the roster lacks a premier receiving threat. While there may be some validity to certain aspects of this notion, it's more likely that Mac Jones is simply who he is - a limited prospect unable to elevate poor skill positions and faltering under pressure due to a lack of physical traits, a requirement increasingly emphasized in today's NFL for top quarterback play.
The primary argument I see revolves around this question: How can a rookie quarterback succeed with a patchwork offensive line and subpar skill position players? That would depend on your definition of success, but for me, it is showing franchise QB - or top 12 QB - qualities.
Let's revisit Josh Allen for a moment. In 2018, upon entering the Bills' training facility and being thrust into a starting role, he did not have a star-studded cast. His main receiving target was Zay Jones, who finished the season with 652 yards and seven touchdowns. Here's how the rest of his supporting cast looked:
It wasn’t just the skill position players that raised questions either. The Bills had the 19th-ranked pass-blocking offensive line and the 31st-ranked run-blocking line, according to PFF.
While it wasn’t an elite season for Allen, and he didn’t start to blossom until year three, in years one and two with questionable casts, they were still able to develop and progress Allen. Despite having a bottom-tier offensive roster in the NFL, they didn’t shy away from selecting the high-upside QB prospect.
Another example is Justin Herbert, another high-upside prospect with some concerns that teams and draft pundits alike overthought. He went on to have one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time, throwing 30+ touchdowns behind the NFL’s 30th-ranked pass-blocking unit and 32nd-ranked run-blocking unit. Granted, he had two good receiving options in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
Jameis Winston serves as the epitome of this phenomenon. As a former first-overall pick, he entered a decent offensive situation with a league-average offensive line and an elite wide receiver. In his first two seasons, he showed flashes of promise but ultimately failed to develop into the high-end starter the team envisioned when they selected him first overall. Despite moving to another situation with elite coaching from offensive savant Sean Payton, along with above-average playmakers and a strong offensive line during his 3.5 seasons with the Saints, he never managed to take the next step. Currently, he finds himself as the backup to Derek Carr.
There are other examples of quarterbacks going to decent-to-favorable situations, and it not working out too. Another notable example is Mitchell Trubisky, who was originally drafted by the Chicago Bears with the second overall pick in 2017. The Bears finished his rookie season with the 18th-ranked pass-blocking unit and the 8th-ranked run-blocking unit, which is relatively decent, league-average circumstances. Despite this, Trubisky struggled to develop into a capable starter during his four seasons with the Bears. Trubisky's inability to thrive continued even after leaving Chicago. He had subsequent stints with the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers, both of which are often considered "better organizations" than the Bears. However, he failed to show significant growth or improvement in his performance during these opportunities either. There isn't a great track record of highly touted quarterbacks leaving the team that drafted them and finding success elsewhere - it is incredibly uncommon.
That is the unfortunate reality of drafting a quarterback. It is widely acknowledged as the single most important position in professional sports, as it has the biggest impact on outcome of games. However, the supply of top-tier quarterbacks is low, which in turn raises the demand for prospects with the tools to become upper-echelon passers. Despite the fact that the hit rate for drafting a successful quarterback is approximately 30%, selecting a quarterback with a top pick is a necessary evil.
Teams that don't have a top-12 quarterback on their roster are in an eternal pursuit of one. As this pertains to the Patriots, they currently hold the rights to the third overall selection in the draft, a position they earned by finishing with a 4-13 record. There is no guarantee that if the Patriots were to pass on a quarterback and select a player like receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. or tackle Joe Alt, they would have another opportunity to draft a quarterback with a high pick.
Throughout the majority of the season, the Patriots struggled with poor quarterback play from Mac Jones, and eight of their 13 losses came within seven points. If they had even stable quarterback play from an entrenched veteran like Jacoby Brissett, there is a high likelihood that they would have won several of those close games and subsequently picked later in the draft.
If the Patriots pass on a quarterback in this year's draft, they will likely find themselves in a position where they need to pursue one in next year's draft. This could potentially require them to trade up, especially in a weaker quarterback class, and mortgage more assets to make the same swing they could make now. By waiting, they would incur additional risk by potentially mortgaging more picks on what is already an inherently risky quarterback pick. It is more prudent for the organization to take advantage of the opportunity to select a quarterback in this year's draft ensuring they secure a top quarterback prospect without tying additional assets to an already risky pick.
For all quarterbacks drafted in the top 15(since 2015), the average ranking of their pass-blocking in year one was 19th, and their run-blocking unit was 20th. Thus, both phases of offensive line performance came in slightly below average across all 22 quarterbacks. To me, this all but confirms the idea that if you have the conviction that a guy is your guy, you take him and figure out the rest later. Below-average offensive lines didn't deter these teams from pursuing their top quarterback prospects.
In the next phase, I aimed to assess whether the performance of the offensive line during a quarterback's first year had a notable impact on their long-term success. Specifically, I sought to determine if quarterbacks who have showcased franchise quarterback potential, at least once in their NFL career, were significantly influenced by their supporting cast in their debut season.
Here are the criteria I developed to determine whether or not a guy had a "franchise QB level season," at least once in their NFL career:
2+ Pro Bowl Selections
Super Bowl Appearance
Season with 35+ TDs
Offensive Rookie of The Year
Eight of the 23 quarterbacks drafted in the top 15 picks since 2015 have demonstrated some level of franchise quarterback play or finished as a top-12 quarterback in at least one season in the NFL. So, were those eight quarterbacks presented with a uniquely good offensive line, and is that part of the reason they rose above their peers who ultimately faltered? No, in fact, the average pass-blocking unit for those eight quarterbacks was lower, indicating that, on average, they had worse offensive lines compared to the other quarterbacks.
The "yellow" group", or the group that meets the attached criteria, on average, had the 20th-ranked pass-blocking unit and the 24th-ranked run-blocking unit. What those quarterbacks did have in common is they were just better than their peers, and ultimately that ended up being what mattered.
It's highly unlikely that if Deshaun Watson and Justin Herbert could overcome some of the worst offensive line play in the NFL in their rookie seasons, that Zach Wilson and Daniel Jones would have developed into comparable players with improved circumstances, even though they had better baseline play from their rosters than Watson and Herbert.
While there's an argument that better players around the quarterback can raise both the floor and ceiling, ultimately, if a quarterback is talented enough to warrant being a top-five selection, the quality of the rest of the roster has almost no impact on whether or not they will end up being good quarterbacks. The low hit rate is not associated with the team's surrounding cast but rather with the rarity of quarterbacks who are truly capable of being top-12 passers. The poor circumstances of the QBs highlighted in yellow didn't prevent them from developing into franchise QBs.
For comparison's sake, as we enter 2024, the Patriots are coming off a season where their offensive line was ranked 29th in pass-blocking and 12th in run-blocking, also per PFF. If there is any association to make here, it is that most of these quarterbacks who found success had a reliable receiving threat - something that the Patriots hopefully acquire between now and the end of the draft.
In conclusion, the Patriots should trust their quarterback evaluation. If there is a quarterback available to them that they believe has the potential to develop into a top 12 QB, they should select him regardless of the overall roster quality. There is enough evidence to suggest that a QB who is destined to succeed will do so even if they face unfavorable circumstances in their rookie season. The low hit rate of top-ranked QB prospects is a multi-faceted issue, and it is unlikely that all of these "misses" are due to teams failing to provide favorable circumstances. The most likely reality is that elite QBs are simply rare. If the team believes they have an opportunity to draft a QB with elite upside, they should seize it, regardless of the low hit rate or roster quality.
Should the Patriots draft a QB with the third overall pick?
Yes
Yes
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