It is no secret, the New England Patriots are in the market for a young quarterback and all of their off-season moves suggest that is the plan. They will be posed with a question though, do they stick and pick at three or trade down, acquire assets, and take one of the QBs projected to go later in round one/round two? I can't provide any clarity as to what is being discussed inside the building, but I can provide my rankings based on dozens of hours of watching film and marrying it with industry-leading analytics.
First Overall Pick Worthy:
1.) Caleb Williams, USC.
Before we delve into the nitty-gritty of why he is my QB1, I want to take a moment to do something the vast majority of others haven't done: clear the air regarding his perceived character concerns.
I am not going to sit here and write this as if I have a personal relationship with Williams or pretend that I know him personally, but it is quite evident what the mass media is doing. It's a click-driven industry. I am not twisting words in an attempt to sell you on the idea that he is a great prospect while riddled with off-the-field concerns. That should serve as reassurance that my objective is not based on whether or not this article does well.
Make no mistake about it, the media has embarked on a character assassination tour with Williams, generating juicy headlines, distorting truths, and scrutinizing events that often go unnoticed for most prospects. From painting his nails to showing vulnerability after a back-breaking loss, every action of Williams has been ridiculed and analyzed. The judgments people have formed about a person they know nothing about have trickled into the opinions of uninformed fans about the football player.
Some of you reading this may have thoughts on Williams that could very well be founded on inaccurate headlines, such as him refusing to provide medicals to NFL teams or telling Chicago he wouldn't play for them. These are just two examples of the numerous headlines that have tainted Williams's public image while simultaneously being false.
Now, for the on-the-field aspects, Williams is truly special. He possesses a rare blend of athleticism and talent, not in the cliché, regurgitated way often discussed when evaluating prospects with out-of-structure ability. Williams can disconnect his upper body from his lower body and throw from nearly any conceivable platform while maintaining his velocity and accuracy remarkably well. His tape is filled with plays that leave viewers questioning, "How did he do that?" There is no area on the field that is inaccessible to Williams; he delivers throws with elite velocity at every level. He demonstrates the ability to play within rhythm and execute timing throws. He has impressive control of his arm, he knows when to throw a pass with air under it and when to turn up the RPMs and drive a pass. His ability to layer the football over defenders is impressive. With a quick release and the ability to throw from any arm slot, he remains largely unfazed by pressure. His pocket management is special - his special pocket elusiveness allows him to maneuver around pass rushers without abandoning the pocket.
It's evident that the game slows down for Williams; he consistently identifies football-sized openings in defenses. He aggressively attacks tight windows with precision while maintaining excellent ball security. As for weaknesses, teams may ask him to play more within structure and rely less on his improvisational skills. Ideally, he operate more within the parameters of each play.
Another area of concern with Williams is play speed. While he has shown the ability to play fast, one of the trade-offs with creative quarterbacks is that they tend to hold onto the ball longer. Williams has the longest average time to throw in this class, so it will be crucial for him to play faster at the NFL level. However, there is space for this play style. In fact, the main catalyst for this play style is Patrick Mahomes, who is aiming for his third Super Bowl and routinely finishes among the top five slowest quarterbacks in average time to throw. It is important to remember that there is no such thing as a perfect prospect, and while there are concerning tendencies, there is nothing that will prevent Williams from being the first player off the board in April.
In conclusion, it will be crucial for his landing spot to strike a balance between guiding him while not stifling the incredible out-of-structure ability he possesses. While the term "generational" is often overused, Williams undeniably ranks among the most talented prospects we have seen in a long time.
2.) Drake Maye, UNC.
Maye is a prospect that I also view worthy of the first overall pick, and he would be in most drafts without Caleb Williams. The newfound and unreasonable fad to suggest that Maye is a bad prospect because he has flaws is an example of the classic prospect fatigue that we see yearly. Maye has been worthy of a top pick for nearly two years, and that shouldn't change. Similar to Stroud or Herbert, those are guys who were picked apart late in the draft process, and may or may not have had their draft stock affected by it—and both have found significant success. I encourage everyone low on Maye to realize that no prospect is perfect, and the goal shouldn't be to find the flawless prospect but rather the one with the most NFL traits or the "highest ceiling".
Maye has prototypical size at 6'4" and 223 lbs, and also has a javelin strapped to his right shoulder; similar to Williams, there is not a single spot on the field that is inaccessible to him. He is a good athlete, enough to buy time, extend plays, and pick up some yards in the NFL. He isn't a Josh Allen-level athlete, but he was uber-efficient as a rusher. For comparison's sake, Jayden Daniels, who was more prolific as a rusher, had comparable efficiency to Maye. Maye has picked up 101 first downs over the last two seasons with his legs, and Daniels has picked up 111 in the same time frame. Furthermore, between designed rushing attempts and scramble attempts, Maye carried the ball a total of 245 times in his final two seasons at UNC. Jayden Daniels has carried the ball 270 times. That works out to one first down every 2.42 carries as opposed to Daniels's first down efficiency of 1 per 2.43 carries. Maye, obviously not nearly the threat with his legs that Daniels is in terms of generating explosive plays, was slightly more efficient at getting first downs than Daniels was.
His creativity outside of structure is also off the charts, which is becoming a prerequisite for being a premier QB in the modern NFL. He has all the tools in his bag to be amongst the best QBs in the league. He took a statistical step back in 2022 and had the ugly Clemson game, but his tape is littered with difficult throws. Over the past two seasons, Drake Maye led all of college football with 76 big-time throws. His ability to make something out of nothing and generate explosive plays is truly special.
Despite his strengths, Maye is not without areas for improvement. He could benefit from technical refinement and greater consistency in his footwork. Early on, occasional errant passes may result from imperfect footwork, but the positives of his game far outweigh the negatives, and his areas needing refinement are typically receptive to coaching. Maye's creativity outside of structured plays aligns with the demands of modern NFL quarterbacks, positioning him to potentially develop into the one of the league's best.
Top-15 Pick Worthy:
3.) Jayden Daniels, LSU.
The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner comes in as my QB3, a threat to either take the ball 50 yards or throw for a 50-yard touchdown at any given moment. Daniels entered 2023 as a day-three draft pick and has risen into top-three consideration with a strong final season. His box score is jaw-dropping; he threw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns, but what's even more remarkable is his production on the ground: Daniels ran for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns.
In terms of NFL translation, given his aggressive play style and ability to attack the deeper parts of the field, Daniels has been suprirngly safe with the football. He doesn't put the ball in harm's way, with a turnover-worthy play rate of only 1.7%, the second-lowest amongst the top ten QBs. Daniels has a beautiful deep ball, one of the best in the class. However, the velocity he musters on passes is just average; he doesn't possess the premier arm talent that some of the best QBs in the NFL have, but it's good enough. Despite his adequate velocity, his deep ball isn't a "rainbow" ball; he can generate spin on deep throws and throw with varying arcs.
As a passer, Daniels needs to take the next step as a processor. There are far too many instances in which he was "late to trigger" on anticipatory throws. Additionally, there weren't many examples of Daniels targeting the middle of the field, a highly translatable NFL skill. This issue stemmed from a blend of factors; on one hand, there were enough perimeter opportunities that Daniels didn't need to target the middle of the field. On the other hand, there were far too many instances of Daniels overlooking open receivers in the middle of the field and electing to go elsewhere or run. There were too many examples of Daniels bailing on favorable passing options and electing to utilize his athleticism.
Ultimately, Daniels is an explosive play waiting to happen. While I'm not sure he possesses the tools to be amongst the best QBs in the NFL, I could see him living between the QB8-QB14 range in any given year.
4.) J.J McCarthy, Michigan.
The most polarizing quarterback in the class, McCarthy, was constrained by a run-heavy offense that didn't necessitate heavy passing volume. However, he showcased his ability to win games with his arm despite the limited opportunities. Adjusting for his low volume of passing attempts, McCarthy emerged as the top third-down passer in the class, proficient in both third-and-short and third-and-long situations.
In terms of his NFL projection, McCarthy possesses all the necessary tools. He boasts exceptional arm strength and demonstrates proficiency in attacking all areas of the field. His agility and elusiveness allow him to extend plays with his legs, whether it's scrambling for yardage, resetting, or throwing off-balance. Additionally, he exhibits versatility in throwing from various arm angles, coupled with precise ball placement and a quick release. McCarthy thrives under pressure, adeptly evading defenders in tight spaces, resembling the caliber of a potential first-overall pick. However, his limited volume raises questions about his ability to sustain this level of performance under a full workload, making his selection a calculated risk based on his considerable upside.
Despite his strengths, McCarthy, like any quarterback prospect, has areas for improvement. While generally a proficient processor, he occasionally delays in triggering throws to breaking receivers. Furthermore, at times, McCarthy can be a bit of a one-speed thrower. While not a major concern, refining his ability to control the RPMs of his throws would enhance his ability to hit more touch throws and improve his overall game. Additionally, operating in an offense that didn't frequently stretch the field vertically, McCarthy's performance as a deep passer was inconsistent. He could improve the placement of his deep passes by gaining better control over the speed of his throws, thereby increasing accuracy and effectiveness in that aspect of his game. Nonetheless, McCarthy's potential for elite quarterback play is evident. Yet, there remains a risk of him underperforming if he is unable to translate these flashes of brilliance into consistent production in a more demanding offense.
Considering McCarthy's youth and limited experience, at only 21 years old, he would likely benefit from a year of development before taking on a starting role in the NFL. By spending time on the sidelines, McCarthy would have the opportunity to learn from seasoned professionals, gain valuable experience, and continue his growth as a quarterback before stepping into a full-time starting position.
Top-32 Pick Worthy:
5.) Bo Nix, Oregon.
Nix is a polarizing prospect. He struggled immensely at Auburn before transferring to Oregon, where he had two outstanding back-to-back seasons, throwing for 74 touchdowns to 10 interceptions in his final two years. Evaluating his NFL projection presents a challenge. On one hand, Oregon protected him with a heavy horizontal offense. Sixty-seven percent of Nix's pass attempts came from behind the line of scrimmage to nine yards, the highest rate in the class. However, when asked to throw deep, he showed some flashes. Yet, there isn't a substantial sample size of vertical passing to confidently assess his ability to generate explosive plays. Similar to other top QBs, he is good at making plays outside of structure. He's a plus performer off-script, and while he may not be the best off-script QB in the class, he possesses enough creativity to benefit an offense.
Nix had some inconsistent performances, notably against Texas Tech, which was riddled with concerning plays. There were instances where he ignored open receivers downfield in favor of check-downs or underneath routes, missing opportunities for explosive plays. Oregon's offensive design leaned heavily on screens, but Nix didn't help himself by overlooking potential big plays. At times, it seemed he predetermined his throws to shallow areas of the field, displaying overly conservative tendencies, which is worrisome. The best NFL quarterbacks are aggressive passers, and there's concern that Nix has yet to strike the right balance between aggression and conservatism. Furthermore, his tendency to disregard favorable passing opportunities in the intermediate-to-deep portions of the field raises processing questions—whether he fails to recognize post-snap defensive looks or simply predetermines ultra-conservative throws, it's concerning.
Nonetheless, Nix is a sixth-year prospect with plus accuracy, adequate arm strength, and the athleticism to pose a threat when plays break down. He demonstrated impressive pre-snap recognition and the ability to adjust plays at the offensive line. Undoubtedly, Nix's most appreciable trait is his consistent growth throughout his collegiate career and his resilience in the face of adversity having burned out from Auburn and having to re-invent himself and his play style at Oregon. Every year, he showcased some level of improvement in his game. This pattern of development bodes well for his transition to the NFL. While I don't envision a scenario where he's ever regarded as a top-ten passer, I wouldn't be shocked if he evolves into a long-term NFL starter that hovers in that QB10-QB15 range, akin to players such as Alex Smith or Kirk Cousins.
Top-64 Worthy Picks:
6.) Spencer Rattler, South Carolina.
Rattler has been a prominent figure in the spotlight, tracing back to his notable appearance on the Netflix series "QB1: Beyond The Lights," a show documenting the final year of high school football for seniors. The series has featured several other NFL quarterback prospects such as Justin Fields, Bryce Young, and Anthony Richardson. On the show, Rattler was portrayed as having a sizable ego and struggling to connect with his teammates. However, his development in college has been remarkable. Initially committing to USC, he was the starting quarterback before being surpassed by soon-to-be first-overall pick Caleb Williams. Rattler subsequently entered the transfer portal and announced his commitment to South Carolina.
During his time as the Gamecocks' starter, Rattler has faced challenging circumstances. South Carolina's offense lacks firepower, with one of the nation's poorest offensive lines according to PFF, ranking 106th out of 133 FBS teams. Playmakers are scarce, with Xavier Legette being the only receiving threat. Film analysis reveals Rattler facing relentless pressure, making his limited college production understandable, yet his NFL projection remains promising. His transition to the NFL is anticipated to offer a more favorable environment.
Rattler has demonstrated flashes of brilliance, exhibiting solid tools and play extension capabilities. He displays the ability to throw off-platform with adequate accuracy and velocity, complemented by a quick and compact release tied to solid footwork. However, his athleticism is somewhat limited, confirmed by an underwhelming 40-yard dash time of 4.95 at the NFL Scouting Combine. While he shows field awareness and the potential to scramble for first downs, he likely will never integrate his legs into his game like Drake Maye or Caleb Williams. Nevertheless, his arm talent is sufficient, playing a modern style of football with versatility in arm angles and possessing a "live arm" capable of generating good - not great - velocity. He is fearless in the pocket, likely developed out of necessity from playing behind a poor offensive line - that is a highly desirable trait that should translate to the next level.
Assessing Rattler presents a challenge. He showed what his peak could look like during his early days at Oklahoma but has struggled to replicate that success since. While he hasn't had the most favorable circumstances, improving ball security remains a priority, especially considering he has the second-highest career turnover-worthy play rate amongst the top ten QBs in this draft class. With Rattler, the gamble rests on the belief that his development was hindered by unfavorable circumstances, and that placing him in a more conducive environment with NFL-level coaching will facilitate his ongoing growth and stability.
7.) Michael Penix Jr, Washington.
I deliberated between Penix and Rattler for this spot, ultimately opting for Penix. He showcased lethal passing skills from the pocket during his college career. However, concerns arise regarding his transition to the NFL. Most notably, he suffered four consecutive season-ending injuries, which, despite recent healthy seasons, remain a significant factor. Initially a more mobile player at Indiana, he has evolved into more of a pocket passer, with diminishing play extension abilities that may further erode in the faster and stronger NFL defensive landscape. Under pressure, Penix struggled, often showing signs of a rushed internal clock, though he flashed glimpses of pocket management and elusiveness.
Positively, Penix possesses a powerful arm, capable of launching deep balls with touch and accuracy. He demonstrates leadership qualities and performs well in critical moments. He displayed strong processing abilities and sound decision-making, resulting in a low turnover rate. Furthermore, he excels in generating explosive plays with the most big-time throws in the country last season. He showed positive signs of playing within rhythm, throwing with timing, and often anticipating plays ahead of time. Additionally, his large hands offer advantages in ball control, particularly in adverse weather conditions.
Despite his impressive traits, Penix's box score statistics fail to fully capture his prospect profile, with uncertain implications for his NFL transition. His skill set is a bit antiquated, necessitating he plays behind a strong offensive line for optimal success. While he may carve out a middle-of-the-pack starting role, his physical limitations outside of structure and mechanical concerns pose considerable hurdles. Some flaws, such as his unorthodox release and mechanical issues, seem deeply ingrained in his build, presenting challenges that may be difficult to coach out. While there's potential for Penix to develop into a solid starter, his path to becoming a top-tier quarterback appears less certain due to these limitations.
Top-150 Pick Worthy:
8.) Michael Pratt, Tulane.
Break down to come.
9.) Jordan Travis, Florida State.
Break down to come.
10.) Joe Milton, Tennessee.
Break down to come.
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