Admittedly, I'm not the biggest fan of mock drafts. It's impossible to predict every pick or gauge how teams feel about certain prospects. Nonetheless, to stay true to the season, I'll release a couple of mock drafts. Here are the ground rules: I'll base these picks on players I believe the Patriots will like and/or who fit their scheme. Additionally, I'll add some context to selections that I believe the NFL will value more than the media. That's how this mock draft will be structured. It's meant to be enjoyable and consider the myriad options available to the Patriots, with a touch of reality sprinkled in—well, as much as possible, anyway.
Two consistent themes stand out: Given the historical tendencies of members of this new regime, I believe they will employ the "best player available" strategy for most selections, while also placing a strong emphasis on athleticism. While this regime is new, this hypothesis aligns with Eliot Wolf's track record at previous stops and is further supported by his lineage as the son of a Hall of Fame General Manager. These strategies provide reasonable expectations for their approach moving forward.
I included the Relative Athletic Scoring cards for each prospect - these scores are based on a 0 to 10 system to show how athletic these guys are. They relate closely to percentiles but are slightly different can read more on the methodology here. Key below.
FOR TOTAL SCORES:
Underwhelming Athlete: Anything sub 5.00
Fair Athlete: 5.00+ Good Athlete: 7.50+
Very Good Athlete: 8.50+
Elite Athlete: 9.00+
3.) J.J McCarthy, Michigan.
Starting off hot – projecting the most polarizing prospect in the entire class to the Patriots is either going to really excite some of you or really upset some of you. I don’t believe McCarthy's pre-draft ascension is the product of smoke and mirrors as we've seen with other "late risers". His rise can be traced back for some time. He actually started off the offseason process as a top draft pick, ranking 22nd on the consensus board as of December 3rd, 2023. Despite being the 22nd-ranked player, there were mock drafts with him being selected earlier – that wasn’t uncommon. However, for whatever reason, he slid down boards before rising back up to his current status of 7th overall on the consensus board. Despite the consensus board rankings, he is frequently mocked in the top five.
The reality is that the NFL is high on McCarthy – and much of the draft media and pundits have been pre-dating his consensus peak. He has all the tools you could want from a quarterback – above-average accuracy, top-tier arm strength, and solid athleticism with high-end out-of-structure capabilities. The concern with McCarthy is that he benefited from a run-first offense that inherently opened up passing opportunities, especially off play-action. Due to Michigan’s strong rushing attack, they never trailed in a game at halftime in 2023. However, if you look back to his final game in 2022, you can see a quarterback who carried a team to a big win in the Fiesta Bowl against TCU, throwing four touchdowns in the second half.
Now, we've discussed the upside and downside, and a big question looms over McCarthy’s head: Can he consistently replicate that level of performance in less ideal circumstances? I believe he can – he was the best QB in the draft class on 3rd down – both adjusted for 3rd and short and 3rd and long. Nonetheless, he will need to prove he has franchise-saving capabilities because that will be the expectation of a top-five pick.
He is not my first pick; I would prefer North Carolina QB Drake Maye, but I am holding on to the belief that the Commanders will select him with the #2 overall pick. That leaves the two top QB options as McCarthy and LSU’s Jayden Daniels. I think the gap between those two prospects is razor-thin. The reason the Patriots take McCarthy here is because stylistically, he is a far better fit for Alex Van Pelt’s projected offense. Additionally, he has a stronger arm than Daniels, is a better off-platform passer, and has a history of playing in cold weather. Make no mistake about it, this is an extremely risky pick – but if Maye goes #2, like I think he will, then that leaves McCarthy as the best schematic fit.
McCarthy did not do enough tests at the NFL scouting combine to earn a total RAS score, but you can see some of the individual measurements below.
34.) TRADE -Patriots send 34 + 137 to the New York Giants for 47 and 70.
47.) Wide Receiver: Javon Baker, UCF.
Another highly discussed prospect among the draft community, Baker may not have caught up to the public's perception yet. He's likely to be a second-round pick, and I would be willing to bet on that. Baker makes the most difficult catches look routine while also being a natural separator. His ability to separate is nuanced, mirroring several of the league's top receivers. He incorporates various shoulder, hip, and head fakes to sell routes and is violent with dropping his hips to generate space. Despite his lack of elite long speed, he won deep on a variety of deep routes – he is one of the most experienced route runners in the class. He could serve to continue refining his releases; occasionally, he wastes too much motion at the line of scrimmage. Additionally, for a bigger guy, he needs to improve his play strength, which would be the cherry on top of his game, really pulling it all together. Baker is a player who we could be talking about as a premier receiver in a few seasons from now.
68.) Wide Receiver: Jermaine Burton, Alabama.
The WR double dip - a Green Bay Packers move led by a coaching staff with heavy ties to the Packers - Burton could emerge as one of the draft's biggest steals. He looks like a natural receiver on tape, which may sound cliché but is indeed the highest praise for a receiver. Similar to the previous pick, Burton stands out as one of the most detailed receivers in the class. His skill set is highly translatable, understanding many of the little nuances of the game and frequently using his high football IQ to beat cornerbacks. He is an exceptional router runner at all three levels of the field. Athletically, he's explosive, boasting impressive percentiles in key metrics such as broad jump (98th), vertical jump (90th), 40-yard dash (88th), and 10-yard split (83rd). Despite these strengths, he falls to this point in the draft due to several factors. He's not the youngest prospect, turning 23 shortly after the draft. Additionally, he lacked significant production in any single year, partly due to the limitations of the passing offenses he played in. However, the primary concern stems from off-field issues. Burton faced controversy when he allegedly struck a fan after a loss. He has since apologized, and this incident remains the only blemish on his playing career. Despite the concerns, his undeniable talent presents an opportunity for the team to add a potential draft steal to their receiving corps, banking on his on-field performance outweighing any past indiscretions.
70.) Offensive Tackle: Patrick Paul, Houston.
Paul is the most experienced starting left tackle in the draft class, boasting a five-year tenure during which he showed continuous improvement. Notable for New England, he has logged the most snaps played at left tackle among all the projected 150 picks - a big area of need. In his final season, he made significant strides in pass protection, allowing just 9 pressures in 496 pass-blocking snaps, translating to a 1.81% pressure percentage—one of the best among draftable tackles.
While he may not possess the highest athletic upside, his remarkable length compensates for it. Standing at an impressive 6’8” (91st percentile) and weighing 331lbs (87th percentile), Paul's measurements are noteworthy. Particularly, his unheard-of arm length of 36.25 inches (97th percentile) and a wingspan of 86.5 inches (96th percentile) make him a mammoth of a human. Moreover, his rare length is unteachable, making it challenging for defensive linemen to evade his overwhelming reach. He may never be the best run-blocker as he has small hands that can cause him to occasionally struggle to control defenders when coming downhill.
Despite not hitting the highest athletic thresholds, when adjusting for his height and weight, Paul still qualifies as a rare athlete. He could be invaluable for a line that could greatly benefit from a plug-and-play pass protector for their rookie QB.
TRADE UP - Patriots send 102 + a 2025 4th to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
92.) Cornerback: Jarrian Jones, Florida State.
In this scenario, they move up 10 spots and secure their boundary corner to pair opposite second-year cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
Jones is an intriguing player, arguably one of the most overlooked corners in this class. His athleticism and instincts shine on tape. In his fifth year, he played the best football of his collegiate career. Serving as a full-time starter, he allowed a mere 158 yards all season. Remarkably, the most yards he allowed all season was 42 yards to LSU - a team with two projected top-20 picks at receiver. Additionally, he didn’t allow a touchdown all season and finished with three interceptions. His reactionary quickness is impressive. He plays with a sense of urgency, his ability to anticipate how plays will unfold and react is an impressive showing for his feel of the game.
From an athletic standpoint, his potential seems limitless. He recorded a 9.87 relative athletic score, ranking 30th out of 2,255 cornerbacks who have attended the combine since 1987. It's evident he possesses special athletic upside; his processing speed, reactionary quickness, and click 'n' close ability consistently manifest on tape.
137.) Interior Offensive Line: Zak Zinter, Michigan.
I know what you’re thinking - the Patriots selected three interior offensive linemen in the top 110 less than 12 months ago, so why do it again? Well, let me explain the rationale behind this pick.
Firstly, if there's one thing we can count on, it's Eliot Wolf prioritizing the best player available, especially at this stage in the draft. Despite Zinter's inability to participate in the offseason process due to a fractured tibia/fibula in November, he brings valuable attributes to the table. Standing at 6'6" with an impressive arm length of 33.5 inches, Zinter controls blocks and has the functional strength to open rushing lanes and a strong enough anchor to be good in pass protection. He possesses enough athleticism to succeed in a zone-blocking scheme and reach the second level of the defense.
Moreover, it's worth noting that this is a new regime, and the current guards, Sidy Sow and Antonio Mafi, were Bill Belichick's projects/picks. With the transition to a new offensive scheme and considering the value available with this pick, it aligns perfectly with my projection of the team's strategy moving forward, even if it may not seem like the flashiest selection.
Zinter was injured and did not participate in the NFL Scouting Combine outside of measurements.
180.) Quarterback: Jordan Travis, Florida State.
The Patriots have a QB problem. While they may have addressed it at the top of the draft with J.J. McCarthy, Eliot Wolf is likely to prioritize the best player available, especially with these later picks. Opting for a "double dip" at QB has real merit, and adding another player to the fold could prove beneficial. Travis, despite a season-ending injury, offers value. In fact, he likely doesn't make it to the sixth round, if he didn't suffer that injury. Travis is well-respected in the FSU locker room, and he would be an ideal QB3 with a developmental upside. He is on the smaller side but has above-average arm talent and above-average athleticism.
Travis takes good care of the football - a coveted asset in a backup/developmental QB prospect. Over the past three seasons, Travis has thrown 59 touchdowns to 13 interceptions - his 2.1% turnover-worthy play rate is amongst the best in this class. He could potentially become QB2 in 2025 and beyond when Jacoby Brissett's contract expires.
Similar to Zinter, Travis suffered a season-ending injury late in the season so he hasn't been able to test.
193.) Tight End: A.J Barner, Michigan.
Barner is another late-round sleeper. A young tight-end prospect who will be just 21 years old when drafted, he offers some receiving upside and will be the Patriot's best blocking option at tight-end from day one. With only two tight ends currently rostered, both of whom are older, Barner represents a low-risk gamble that will offer the team early returns in the blocking game, addressing a pressing need, while allowing him to continue to grow as a receiver. Historically, tight ends have a long development curve, with many players not hitting their stride until year three. Barner's young age makes him an enticing project to invest in, particularly in the sixth round of the draft. The last time the Patriots gambled on a Michigan project in the sixth round it worked out.
231.) Linebacker: Ty’Ron Hopper, Missouri.
Hopper is a project linebacker with athletic upside. He compensates for his thinner lower half with good sideline-to-sideline speed, a valuable asset that the Patriots could benefit from in their linebacker room. While he may not be the strongest or most instinctive linebacker prospect, it's important to remember that this pick comes in the seventh round.
Furthermore, Jerod Mayo has indicated that the staff plans to start 2023 3rd-round pick Marte Mapu at the safety position, indicating a potential shift in defensive strategy and personnel.
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