Bo Nix, Oregon's QB, is one of the most polarizing prospects in the class. The reason for the varying opinions is that Nix spent his first three collegiate seasons with Auburn and struggled mightily. He finished his career at Auburn with 39 touchdowns to 16 interceptions in 34 games. However, he transferred to Oregon where he had his two best seasons and finished third in Heisman voting in his final season. Without further ado, here is Bo Nix's scouting profile as part of the top-6 QBs in the 2024 draft class.
QB Bo Nix(#10), Oregon.
Date of Birth: February 25, 2000. Age at draft: 24
Strengths:
Has requisite arm strength; while not among the upper-echelon QBs, he operates at a B+ level in this regard.
Has an element of creativity that the defense will need to consider when facing him; adept at creating plays out of structure and making off-platform throws. Ranked as QB4 in this class in this aspect, he nonetheless possesses the ability that is increasingly essential in the NFL.
Impressive accuracy and drive on the ball when throwing off-platform on a consistent basis. Has enough upper body strength to make these throws without a proper throwing base and still deliver the ball.
Flashed the ability to throw from a crowded pocket
Apart from Troy Franklin, his receivers struggled to create separation downfield.
Excellently controls the RPMs on his passes, capable of layering the ball over defenders and delivering passes with beautiful touch.
His deep-fade ball outside the numbers is truly a work of art.
Elite in the quick game, showcasing plus ball placement and consistently making the right decisions based on defensive looks, swiftly delivering the ball to the appropriate targets.
Examples of plus deep throwing traits: demonstrates good timing and placement when targeting the deeper portion of the field. However, only had 51 attempts beyond 20 yards in 2023.
Makes some really good throws with defenders pressuring him, especially against the blitz. Consistently in this regard could serve to improve. He was better against pressure in some games (e.g., Washington State) than others (e.g., Texas Tech).
When kept clean, his mechanical refinement is among the best in the class.
He had a good tendency to follow up negative plays with positive ones, showcasing some resiliency.
He did a good job staying in rhythm and hitting timing throws in an offense that primarily attacked the shallow parts of the field.
Weaknesses:
There was a serious lack of emphasis on intermediate and deep passes by Oregon's offense. 67% of his passes came under nine yards, the highest among the top six QBs in this draft class.
Heavy empty-set and RPO-based offense, with a lack of under-center reps. There will be a transition period to adjust to more modern NFL offensive concepts.
Can be a bit hesitant. Needs to trust his eyes and "grip it and rip it" into the intermediate levels of the field more.
Not nearly enough reps of true NFL-type plays. Features tons of designed boots, schemed short throws, etc.
At times, his eyes can seem to scan around the field out of obligation rather than processing coverage, indicating a concern about predetermining the easy throw. It can feel like he is just going through the motions as part of the routine rather than maximizing the look.
There are too many check-downs for my liking, which could be by design of the offense. However, it is hard to imagine the offense has him blatantly overlooking more lucrative passing options to revert to the checkdown.
So many missed opportunities in the Texas Tech game. Flashed a concerning trend regarding his field vision, as he missed numerous big-time plays in favor of checkdowns. He was far too fast to go through his progressions in this game.
Situational awareness was terrible against Texcas Tech. He threw what should have been an INT in a crucial moment but was bailed out because they ruled the defender didn’t complete the process of the catch when intercepting it. Oregon went on to kick the field goal and go up 28-27, but it was a turnover-worthy throw from Nix despite his stroke of luck. He got even luckier with his defense getting the pick-six that ended the game.
Mentioned in previous bullet points, but the Oregon vs. Texas Tech game showed some concerning trends for Nix.
Inconsistent against pressure, his footwork is generally clean but a few pressure reps where his footwork gets squirrely resulting in an errant pass.
I do think that Oregon's offense was short-game-heavy by design. However, when the downfield opportunities were there, he was ultra-conservative. Whether that is because he feels comfortable in that aspect or he struggles to see the field and rushes his progressions, I am not sure.
Bottom Line:
Bo Nix is a polarizing QB prospect, eliciting a range of opinions from talent evaluators. He exhibits numerous positive traits, boasting B+ arm strength, coveted mobility necessary for success at the NFL level, and adequate accuracy across all three passing levels. Additionally, he is a mechanically refined prospect with ample experience, having accumulated 1,945 collegiate passing attempts, the most in the class. However, it's worth noting that while Nix meets several desirable thresholds for a franchise QB, he doesn't excel in any specific area. As a result, he may never become the most athletic or creative quarterback in the NFL.
Nix flashed plus deep passing traits, often hitting his receivers in stride. He might be the best pre-snap QB in the class and flashed some high-level anticipatory throws, seeing windows form before they did. One of the trickiest aspects in Nix's evaluation is deciphering Oregon's quick play scheme and Nix playing too conservatively and pre-determining where he was going with the football. He was woefully inconsistent in seeing the field and often rushed or disregarded his progressions to get back to the check-down. I worry about his situational awareness in big moments; he had what should have been a crucial interception against Texas Tech, but it was ruled that the defender did not complete the process of a catch. I reference that Texas Tech game because, of all the games I watched, that one was the most mind-boggling of any prospect I have seen in this draft cycle. I want to call it uncharacteristic, but there were too many concerning habits in that game, a game he was forced to play from behind for most of the time, which is hard to ignore. He didn't face significant pressure at Oregon, but when he did, I would say he was proficient. Some inconsistency, but that is expected under pressure. Extrapolating his true pass reps to a full NFL season worth is difficult with just how gimmicky Oregon's offense was. NFL teams will need to ask themselves if Oregon's offensive structure held him back or masked some concerning trends that would rear their ugly head if Nix was asked to play in a more pro-style offense.
On one hand, Nix flashes the traits to be a top-ten pick in this class, and on the other hand, there is enough concerning material on his tape for a team to not feel comfortable taking him on day one. For me, he is best served as a late-day-one prospect, ideally going to a team that has a sound framework with some playmakers. I struggled to see a path for Nix to ever be an elite QB; he is in year six in college, and some things have just never clicked that probably never will click - but he has shown progress every year, so I wouldn't write him off in this regard. I wouldn't be surprised if Nix continues to develop and ends up as a top-16 QB in the NFL.
Featured photo courtesy of Bo Nix's Instagram.
Comments