With NFL free agency less than a month away the Patriots are in a unique position with an estimated $60,750,547 in effective cap space(via OverTheCap).
While it is unclear just how heavy spenders the Patriots' new coaching regime will be, it is a good bet to expect they will be in the market for at least one splash signing. Per the NFL's collective bargaining agreement, clubs are required to spend at least 89% of the cap over a four-year period. The Patriots are currently expected to have the most cap space in the NFL in 2025, and by a pretty wide margin at that. To some degree, this new front office will have to spend to adhere to the NFL's rules.
That begs the question: who should the Patriots target and why? For starters, it might be a good idea to temper some expectations. This is not a strong offensive free agency class, and many of the top names that have been discussed for months are likely to be franchise tagged (e.g., wide receivers Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman). This list will be assembled with the franchise tag in mind, so I will be omitting prospects I believe have a strong chance of being tagged.
Cornerback, L'Jarius Sneed.
Photo courtesy of the Kansas City Chiefs(Mikayla Schmidt)
The Patriots may have found a gem at CB with their 2023 first-round pick, Christian Gonzalez. Even with Gonzalez projected as the boundary corner who should follow elite receivers, there is a vacancy on the opposite boundary.
After Gonzalez went down with a season-ending injury in week four, Jonathan Jones became the "main guy," often following the opposing team's best receiver. That yielded mixed results. In week six, Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams gave Jones fits, catching five passes for 117 yards. In 2022, he struggled mightily against the premier receivers in Buffalo, Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Green Bay. Jones spent the first few years of his career primarily playing as a nickel cornerback before transitioning to the boundary in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. To his credit, he was forced into playing outside of his normal position and at 5'10" 183 lbs, he was often smaller than his competition. Jones's struggles as a boundary cornerback in 2022, in part, led to the team drafting the prototypically sized cornerback in Gonzalez.
Sneed and Gonzalez would form a formidable duo on the boundary. It would also allow Jones to move back to his natural spot as a nickel cornerback, where he was among the best slot cornerbacks. Sneed has prototypical size at 6'1" 192 lbs and has been among the better cornerbacks in the NFL in a man-heavy defensive scheme. The Patriots need to go offense-heavy in the draft, and they won't have the luxury of drafting many defensive players at the top of the draft. The team allocating their money on a marquee defensive player would only bolster the strongest unit on the team.
Projected contract via PFF: Three years, $52.5m. $35m guaranteed.
Offensive Tackle, Mekhi Becton.
Photo courtesy of the New York Jets
The options at tackle are slim, and Mekhi Becton might be one of the higher upside prospects who is also still young. In his rookie season, Becton impressed, allowing just 23 pressures on 413 pass-blocking snaps. It has been all downhill from there, as Becton has struggled with injuries and weight concerns. To some Patriots fans, this may feel like Trent Brown 2.0, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Brown came in as a reclamation project and gave the team several quality seasons as a starter with left and right tackle flexibility. It is much of the same story. Becton has played mostly on the left side but did appear in two games in 2023 as the starting right tackle due to injury. He was pretty solid, allowing three pressures in each game.
Becton would serve as a bridge tackle, offering high reward and low risk as a short-term starter. It would be in the team's best interest to find a capable swing tackle in case he were to get injured, but it would fill a big void and not require the team to shell out huge money or make a long commitment to a middling tackle. Becton will probably receive a one-year "prove it" type deal from whoever signs him.
Projected contract value via PFF: One year, $5m. $3m guaranteed.
Calvin Ridley, Wide Receiver.
Photo courtesy of the Jacksonville Jaguars(Kam Nedd)
It's no secret the Patriots desperately need wide receiver help, and Calvin Ridley might be their only free agent option with upper echelon upside. In November 2022, the Atlanta Falcons traded Ridley to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a conditional pick. If the Jaguars were to extend Ridley prior to the start of the new league year (March 13th, 2024), they would owe the Falcons a 2024 second-round pick. If Ridley doesn't agree to a contract extension with the Jaguars by the new league year, they will only owe the Falcons a third-round pick. There is a loophole, though: the Jaguars could franchise tag Ridley, and that would not count as an extension, meaning they would only owe the Falcons a third-round pick. That being said, the Jaguars have a cornerstone player in pass rusher Josh Allen, who is a likely tag candidate. That leaves Ridley as a strong candidate to test free agency, and with a weaker free agent class, he may be able to cash out.
For the Patriots, Ridley would fit a similar role to Kendrick Bourne, primarily playing from the Z. Ridley has flexibility to line up anywhere, though, a coveted asset especially on a team looking to take a leap offensively. Ridley is an older guy who will turn 30 during the 2024 season. Fortunately, he doesn't have too much mileage on him as he was an older prospect coming into the 2018 draft class and also missed 1.5 seasons due to a mixture of injury and a year-long gambling suspension. He has only played 66 NFL games, which for reference, is the same number of games played as CeeDee Lamb and is less than four full NFL seasons.
Ridley is coming off a solid season in which he caught 76 passes for 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns. His career peaked in 2020 when he hauled in 90 passes for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns. He would quickly be the best receiver the Patriots have had in some time, even if that is a low bar. He may not be the dominant receiver presence we all want to see, but he is definitely a low-end number one option. He is somewhere in the top 30 best receivers in the league right now, and that is a big jump for the Patriots, who have struggled to find production from their receivers for the better part of the past half-decade.
Tight End, Dalton Schultz.
Photo courtesy of the Houston Texans
With both tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki slated to hit free agency, the Patriots will need a tight end. Henry has been solid to good in his time in New England, but he turns 30 during the season. As for Gesicki, it didn't work out, and he never found his footing in the offense. Schultz gives them a veteran option that mirrors the Hunter Henry signing from a few years back. Schultz has the upside to be primed for an uptick in production in a different system. He is better at in-line blocking than Gesicki and Henry too. The team just has too many holes to fill via the draft, so they will need to bargain shop in certain areas, and I expect Schultz to be a good value signing. He has averaged 41.8 yards per game over the past four years, which puts him on pace for 710 yards and 6 touchdowns per season. That is fringe top 10 tight end play.
Projected contract value via PFF: Three years, $33m. $20.6m guaranteed.
Edge, Chase Young.
Photo courtesy of the San Francisco 49ers(Austin Ginn)
Young is a hard player to evaluate. He has never reached his pre-draft hype after an extremely promising rookie season. To his credit, he suffered a devastating knee injury that took the better part of two seasons to come back from. Young had flashes of dominance this past season; he finished with 74 pressures, which was the 13th most in the NFL.
He has always been an exceptional run defender, so his floor is pretty high in terms of being a safe signing. This is a swing-for-the-fences type signing, hoping this defensive-laden staff can maximize the player. Young has All-Pro upside.
There were concerns regarding his effort and discipline in Washington, per The San Francisco Chronicle's Mike Silver. That seemed to extend into his time with the 49ers, with numerous examples of poor effort reps being shared around X. Concerns established, it is rare that a player of his pedigree and potential hits the open market. The Patriots' best pass rusher is currently Matthew Judon, who will be 32 years old by kickoff, but if he has another good season or two in him, the addition of Young could form a formidable duo.
Honorable Mentions
I can't possibly cover every player that I think would be a good signing in one article, but to add some more names I think have upside, here are some honorable mentions, in no particular order.
Safety, Geno Stone.
Running Back, Saquon Barkley
Linebacker, Devin White.
Tackle, Jonah Williams.
Interior Defensive Lineman, Christian Wilkins * Linebacker, Frankie Luvu.
Tackle, Jermaine Eluemanor.
Edge, Bryce Huff.
Interior Defensive Lineman, Teair Tart.
Linebacker, Blake Cashman. Wide Receiver, Michael Thomas.
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